Observation Predicted Y Residuals Standard Residualsģ. Results obtained in Excel 2010 (using Data Analysis Add-in) for RESIDUAL OUTPUT: I present an example for making the explanation simpler:Ģ. The bug in the SResidual calculation is still unfixed in Real Statistics 2.17. I hope this isn’t too confusing, please let me know otherwise.
Knowing that this price is highly correlated to a different price (r = 0.98 and r-squared = 95%), let’s call it “Price B”, and that Price B does have available historical data going back multiple years, here’s what I’ve done: calculated in Excel, using the equation y=m*x+a (where y = price A and x = price B) and parameters calculated in Excel (“m” and “a”), what the prices would had been at point A, let’s say for the last 12 months.Įssentially, I would appreciate if you could tell me whether or not this is valid approach and also what would I should be doing next to estimate the prices for the next 12 months. The issue I’m having is that the price I’m trying to estimate, lets call it “Price A”, is relatively new, with only 6 months of hourly historical prices available. I’m trying to roughly estimate/predict what the hourly energy prices ($/MWh), at a certain grid point, will be going forward, out 12 months.
I’m relatively new to regressions and I’m hoping you can give me your thoughts on the following:
Thanks for all the interesting information you have available here.
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